Michael - Person Ukraine Tweets

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@VladDavidzon That's a good question. I guess he will try to keep as low a profile as possible now and later on, from Spring 2023 on, adopt a position that will resemble the one dominant among US Republicans at *that* time. In other words: if Ukraine doesn't win now, Israel will go pro-Russia.

@DrRadchenko A good piece. As you rightly said, in an ideal world, Ukraine should have acted much more dovishly. But, given domestic constraints there was only little leeway for Zelensky to show more moderation. Blame should rather be directed at *Western* hawks who created false hopes.

@NGrossman81 The contrary is true. EU membership was ruled out by Prodi in the early 2000s and even a free trade deal / association was not offered later on. Why, for instance, didn't the EU in 2014 offer an association agreement to BOTH Ukraine and Russia?

@phl43 I am more optimistic and think these shifts towards moderation will happen soon, and even faster than wrt to the Iraq War. However, the consequences of having indulged Ukraine's maximalism will likely be way more severe for the West than the negative impact of the Iraq disaster.

@bintsarovskyi @roddreher Putin's demands are insane. But this doesn't mean Ukraine must advance maximalist demands in return. On the contrary: by showing moderation it can split the Russian power elite, because as of now, the "peace party" in Russia has next to no incentive to topple Putin.

@bintsarovskyi @roddreher Ukraine's leadership explicitly rejected any talks with Russia until it goes back not just to Feb. 24 lines but leaves the Donbass and Crimea (in the beginning of the war, Ukrainian demands were more modest but that changed).

@VladDavidzon You know exactly what I mean. Due to the West's indulging of Ukraine's maximalist demands, Russia's "peace party" has no incentives to ditch Putin & end the war. So there are essentially 2 scenarios: either Russian mobilization succeeds (more likely) or nuclear war.

@phl43 I tend to agree. Even though the risks of nuclear war aren't *that* high, there will im any case likely be an enormous price to pay for indulging maximalist aims in Ukraine. It's similar to World War I: there will be no winners, and even the "winners" will be (much) worse off.

@Vladimir_Gelman I think this is an excellent analysis of the *current* situative dynamics. However, I would add that parts of the Russian power elite could start to view alternatives to the status quo as desirable once the West/Ukraine begin to abandon maximalist demands.

@Volod_Ishchenko @leonidragozin Indeed. Honest question: why are people like, say, Zelensky or Arestovich so powerless in the face of the damages this maximalist attitude is doing to everyone and everything (not least to Ukraine's prospects of surviving)? Do you have a good explanation for that?

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