Intrigued to see this Wagner Group scenario of Ukraine invading Russia to seize Belgorod as a 'demonstration'. No doubt this would cross all sorts of red lines. Hypothetically though, if Ukraine did this to bargain for Ukrainian territory held by Russia, what then? Thoughts?
Ukraine's offensive and now the Zaluzhnyi article. I'm guessing the next two issues of @LawDavF 's substack are sorted
Ukraine's offensive and now the Zaluzhnyi article. I'm guessing the next two issues of @LawDavF are sorted
@warmatters Excellent questions! A couple questions in response. 1. What aspects of OSINT can in fact be 'turned off'? 2. Are those that can be turned off essential or tangential? 3. What do we know of Russian OSINT on Ukraine/Western support?
@alessionaval Very interesting. Thanks! I was actually trying to contemplate a scenario like we see in Ukraine with high level visits that start as a risky act of defiance and then turn into a circus, similar to Congressional delegations to war zones.
In early Feb US intel briefed scenario of 'large-scale invasion of Ukraine that could leave up to 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, decapitate the government in Kyiv within two days, and launch a humanitarian crisis with up to 5 million refugees' 20/ 👇 From UK DI, 17 Feb https://t.co/5flzXZW7jZ
In Jan, a CSIS report noted: 'it is important to understand how Russia could invade Ukraine, how specific political objectives may influence an invasion plan'. https://t.co/ulTXFaMKxQ 15/
In contrast Putin's 'approach to the current Ukraine conflict has clearly been deluded. You have to assume he didn’t realise the gamble he was taking. He genuinely thought Ukraine would crumble quite quickly'. Thus a concept of a war lasting days based on dubious assumptions 12/
He highlights: 'there is no evidence Russia was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine, cultivating pro-Russian leaders in Kyiv, or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country and eventually integrate it into Russia' 8/