Jennifer Cafarella - Person Ukraine Tweets

Jennifer Cafarella
@JennyCafarella
Chief of Staff & National Security Fellow @TheStudyofWar. Fellow @MasonNatSec. Retweet鈮爀ndorsement. Media inquiries: press@understandingwar.org
Location: Washington, DC
Followers: 23k
Statuses: 11k
UA Statuses: 12
Friends: 2.4k
Favourites: 16k
Avg sentiment: 馃檨

This is hard, because #Ukraine must recapture all of its territory to win, so losses of towns can feel like the war is slipping But #Ukraine is waging a sophisticated war effort that is non-linear. The fight for #Severodonetsk created effects that favor #Ukraine across the E & S

What matters most about #Severodonesk is the Ukrainian grit that forced Russia to endure weeks of grueling attrition & accept strategic-level costs to take 1 small part of Donbas Yes territorially it鈥檚 Ukraine鈥檚 loss. But wars cannot be understood only through a territorial lens

Does that mean #Ukraine will win? It surely means they have a shot. Even now. And especially if they preserve the will - and America and NATO do the same. 12/

This partisan activity in southern #Ukraine looks increasingly coordinated & could --> a coherent campaign to erode Russian control, impose costs that attrite Russian capability & will, & foster resistance. These effects support future counterattacks to reclaim terrain. 10/

In the south, the war has already entered the next phase. Ukraine has forced a limit of advance upon Russian forces & begun counterattacks More importantly, #Ukraine is setting conditions via partisan warfare behind the front lines to destabilize Russian control 9/

Forcing a halt to Russian offensive operations in the East (even a stalemate) would buy time for #Ukraine to regroup, rearm, & prepare a counteroffensive The US & NATO should surge support to ensure it does halt Russian gains & can reset quickly for a counteroffensive 8/

Unless Russian forces are destroyed (so damaged they cannot fight) or suffer a rout (disorderly collapse), they are unlikely to be repelled akin to Kyiv. Instead, Ukraine wins by retaking its territory by force. Sometimes one village at a time. 7/

These factors matter. The initial shock of Ukraine's fierce defense has worn off. While Russian forces cannot fully overcome initial failures in their structure, preparation, etc they have settled in for an intentional & vicious battle of attrition. 6/

Operational stalemate would not mean the tide is turning toward #Russia, however. Fighting the Russian army to an effective standstill in the Donbas would be a huge victory for #Ukraine It raises an important point regarding what success looks like as the war changes 4/

Operationally, Ukraine is nearing a grinding stalemate in the East. As we @TheStudyofWar warned in March, stalemates are bloody & dynamic at the tactical level. This is already on display in the brutal attrition battle for incremental advances in #Severodonesk 3/

Ukraine Tweets Analytics
2022