@OrmeStephan Like when they didn't build defenses around the border, reform training for troops, or listen to intelligence? You have to understand Ukraine is plagued with soviet thinking and corruption, and leaders do in fact fuck up on a regular basis.
Can the defense of Bakhmut last that long? I strongly doubt it. It is possible, but I doubt it. And even if Ukraine can defend that long, at what costs? Would it even be worth it?
Russia will likely continue its current pressure level for the next 2-3 months, at which point Ukraine could begin preparing for its attack, which could come in 5-7 months—late summer to autumn, in other words.
We witnessed this last summer leading up to Ukraine’s major offensives in the autumn.
Furthermore, preparing for a counterattack itself requires a lull in combat, a period where Russia is forced, for whatever reason, to slow its pace of assaults. The break intensity will allow Ukraine to train its forces and prepare for its attack.
It will take months for Ukraine to prepare a significant counterattack. It requires substantial training, planning, and preparation. I don’t think Bakhmut can last months.
However, Ukraine’s constant desire to throw more men into the problem has a real chance to backfire. It is long past time for Ukraine to cut its losses and pull back to a different defensive line.
As a result, Ukraine can no longer use main roads, instead relying on farm roads. Unfortunately, these roads are deteriorating from the passage of heavy machinery and the spring mud. https://t.co/2wzUYrHBMH
A bit further south, closer to Bakhmut, Russia is attacking the town of Khromove again without success. But the pressure on this town is intense, and Ukraine must hold it because it shields the supply roads into Bakhmut. https://t.co/0OV5zNRWHn
Personally, I think the response to China helping Russia in Ukraine should be giving Taiwan like 1000 nukes.